Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $892,497$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,015,803.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,015,803.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,257$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,332.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,332.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41,552$ on 2020-10-28

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,468,270$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,575,166.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,575,166.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $158,456$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,917.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 121.5)}}\) (asimptote \(159,917.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $362,037$ on 2020-10-28

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $141,321$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,822.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.4)}}\) (asimptote \(142,822.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,694$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,551.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 145.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,551.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,324$ on 2020-10-28

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $505,530$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{463,461.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 110.6)}}\) (asimptote \(463,461.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14,032$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,015.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 109.9)}}\) (asimptote \(13,015.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,592$ on 2020-10-28

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $164,908$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,394.0}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 148.4)}}\) (asimptote \(185,394.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,608$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,433.1}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 192.5)}}\) (asimptote \(20,433.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,541$ on 2020-10-28

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,130,533$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,613,887.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 202.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,613,887.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,071$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,030.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 216.9)}}\) (asimptote \(60,030.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $169,315$ on 2020-10-28

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,041,936$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,052,973.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 161.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,052,973.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,753$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,965.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 146.2)}}\) (asimptote \(30,965.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $69,309$ on 2020-10-28

Paraguay⮸

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,290$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74,998.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 194.5)}}\) (asimptote \(74,998.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,359$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,562.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 189.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,562.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,643$ on 2020-10-28

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chile recovered 90%
Bolivia recovered 63%
Venezuela recovered 62%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $90,876$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,319.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 169.9)}}\) (asimptote \(98,319.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $784$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{887.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 162.0)}}\) (asimptote \(887.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,690$ on 2020-10-28