Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $892,497$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,015,803.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,015,803.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,257$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,332.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,332.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $41,552$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,468,270$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,575,166.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,575,166.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $158,456$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,917.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 121.5)}}\) (asimptote \(159,917.8\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $362,037$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $141,321$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,822.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.4)}}\) (asimptote \(142,822.5\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,694$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,551.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 145.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,551.5\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,324$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $505,530$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{463,461.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 110.6)}}\) (asimptote \(463,461.6\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $14,032$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,015.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 109.9)}}\) (asimptote \(13,015.9\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,592$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $164,908$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{185,394.0}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 148.4)}}\) (asimptote \(185,394.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,608$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,433.1}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 192.5)}}\) (asimptote \(20,433.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,541$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,130,533$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,613,887.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 202.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,613,887.8\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,071$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,030.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 216.9)}}\) (asimptote \(60,030.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $169,315$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,041,936$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,052,973.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 161.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,052,973.3\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,753$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,965.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 146.2)}}\) (asimptote \(30,965.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $69,309$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $61,290$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74,998.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 194.5)}}\) (asimptote \(74,998.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,359$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,562.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 189.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,562.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,643$ on 2020-10-28